Is the Recession Ending?

As 2009 moves into the fourth quarter, many are analyzing if we are moving out of the recession and where the state of the economy is now located.  I received an article from Edward Jones last week that made some good points that I thought I would share some of them with you.  Of course, I don’t agree with everything but their stats are interesting and do show that  positive movement in our economy has occurred and is continuing.

  1.  Economic Indicators are Positive.  Stock Market, measured by the S&P 500 had risen 50% from March lows.
  2. Global Economies are recovering.  The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) leading indicators for its 33 member countries recorded the largest increase since records begain in 1962.
  3. Federal Reserve’s Efforts to stablilize the Financial System are working.  Slashing interest rates and pumping trillions into the financial system restored money and corporate credit markets.  Corporate America has taken advantage of attractive rates, issuing more than 800 billion in new bonds during the first 7 months of 2009.
  4. Bank Lending is Increasing.  While standards are expected to reamin tight compared to historical standards, the improvement that has occurred should be enough to support economic recovery.
  5. Expectations for 2010 Economic Growth continue to improve.  Wall Street Journal surveyed economists and 80% said they believed the recession either had already ended or would by September.
  6. Manufacturing is on the Rebound.  The Fed said industrial production rose .8% in August comparted to july.  This was the largest back to back gain since 2005 and followed nine consecutive monthly declines.  European industrail orders increased 2.6% in July compared to June, the second consecutive increase.

(Points adapted and summarized from Edward Jones)


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